The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

[Ian]

Warning - for dyed in the wool F1 fans only!

As you do on a Sunday evening in front of the telly, a few hours after a Grand Prix, I decided to do some number crunching in Excel. Despite Rubens' great form in the second half of the season, since Germany he has had to score an average of almost 3 points more than Jenson per race. Despite the two wins, his actual lead requirement per race over Jenson since Germany has gone up from 2.7 points to 3.5 points. Before today's race he needed 2.8 points more than Jenson. Basically, Rubens is running out of races. If Rubens wins in Singapore and Jenson comes second again, Rubens will need an average of more than 4 points per remaining race more than Jenson. And so on.

After the German GP Vettel needed only 2.3 points per race, average, to catch Jenson by the end of the season. Now he needs to score an average of 6.5 points per race more than jenson just to catch him.

Webber needs an average of just over 7.1 more points per race than Jenson.

In fact if Jenson averages more than 3 points per race more than Rubens at Singapore and Japan, albeit an unlikely scenario, he could be champion before the finale in Brazil...

Ian

[coupekid]

Re: The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

haha, what are you like Ian!
these numbers are all very well, but what would happen if Jenson made one istake and had a race where he did not get any points?

it aint over, until the overweight woman begins to sing!

[Ian]

Re: The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

haha, what are you like Ian!
these numbers are all very well, but what would happen if Jenson made one istake and had a race where he did not get any points?

it aint over, until the overweight woman begins to sing!

Yeah, but that possibility applies to all - just lookat Webber yesteday!

The point I'm making is that despite all Jenson's ups and downs so far, the stats have been very good for him and as the races run out, the odds are that they will get better, not worse.

And if Jenson beats Rubens in Singapore by two points then suddenly Rubens needs 6 points a race over Jenson to win, while if Jenson loses to Rubens by two points, then Rubens still needes more than 4 points per race more than Jenson. If Rubens has any chance of winning, he has to beat Jenson by very lage margins. If he doesn't win the race in Singapore, he has no chance of beating Jenson's tally of wins, so Jenson is - morally - the champion at that point in many eyes.

Ian

[Ian]

Re: The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

Haha! We run Google ads here on the site and these are context sensitive. Interestingly, I have just seen a banner for Brawn GP merchandise on here

Just been looking at the Singapore stats for last year's race. Rubens had a terrible time, being soundly beaten by Jenson in all the practice sessions and qualifying, and he retired early in the race, while Jenson went on to a respectable ninth. I don't think it will be clearcut like that this year, but memories of last year should benefit Jenson more than Rubens, methinks!

Ian

[JSR]

Re: The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

Well it's not over 'til it's over but I certainly breathed a sigh of relief on Sunday when the Brawns were back at the top again. In Button's case, this was a particular necessity. He couldn't rely on the unreliability of the Red Bulls 'til the end of the season in order to win. He needs to be back on the ball and it looks like he is.

Didn't Ross Brawn say they have more new parts for Singapore? I hope that doesn't mess up the car again.

One of the good things about this turnaround is that it suggests that Brawn GP have been able to improve the car off their own back. In the first several races, there was always the "Honda influence" - that being all the money spent on the car prior to the season. Any improvements to the car now are purely Brawn GP and not as a result of great oodles of pre-season cash.

It's noticeable how the teams with the biggest wallets have almost caught up. No in-season testing has made it take longer than it normally would, but the likes of McLaren are back up there because of their resources of cash. That can't fix Hasty Hamiliton and his Hilarious H'Accidents, but it clearly demonstrates the difference between a team with tight wallets and one with open pockets.

[Ian]

Re: The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

Well it's not over 'til it's over but I certainly breathed a sigh of relief on Sunday when the Brawns were back at the top again. In Button's case, this was a particular necessity. He couldn't rely on the unreliability of the Red Bulls 'til the end of the season in order to win. He needs to be back on the ball and it looks like he is.

Didn't Ross Brawn say they have more new parts for Singapore? I hope that doesn't mess up the car again.

One of the good things about this turnaround is that it suggests that Brawn GP have been able to improve the car off their own back. In the first several races, there was always the "Honda influence" - that being all the money spent on the car prior to the season. Any improvements to the car now are purely Brawn GP and not as a result of great oodles of pre-season cash.

It's noticeable how the teams with the biggest wallets have almost caught up. No in-season testing has made it take longer than it normally would, but the likes of McLaren are back up there because of their resources of cash. That can't fix Hasty Hamiliton and his Hilarious H'Accidents, but it clearly demonstrates the difference between a team with tight wallets and one with open pockets.

One exception to that is clearly Force India, who probably have the smallest budget of all. Their car went brilliantly at Spa and Monza. Singapore is completely different, so it will be fascinating if Force India have found sustainable speed, or simply the low downforce characteristics of the last two circuits have flattered their car's poor aero dynamics. Of course, having the Mercedes engine hasn't done them, Brawn, and McLaren any harm!

Ian

[peter]

Re: The arithmetic is on Jenson Button's side

I do hope jenson does it but would not be upset if Rubens wins. Jenson has been around for a good few years but never in the top car. This season has seen so many of the top teams mess up and that means the under dogs can have their day which is good for the sport. The sport needs this to help people forget the scandal that is going on at the moment. Rubens needs it as well, he will not be in the sport much longer next year being his last I would guess. He has always played the number 2 driver so this is why I would like to see him do it just to show what he is really made of.